Forecasting steel metallic prices out to 2020

Examination of current affairs and future developments within the global aluminium market

Producers of large OD linepipe are optimistic over the outlook for linepipe demand over the coming five year period, following lackluster growth in the previous two years. Since the start of the global recession, linepipe supply has exceeded demand causing prices to slip and producers to cut output rates or shift production to non-energy tubing. Demand is now in recovery but in the meantime, there have been some structural changes in the markets that affect the prevailing sentiment as well as our outlook for the industry. The slower-than-expected economic recovery, development of shale gas and oil reserves, demand for infrastructure investment and environmental concerns have all shaped the landscape of the market.

Metal Bulletin Research will release its 4th 5-Year Strategic Outlook for the Global OCTG Industry in April 2013.

The global OCTG industry continues to grow and remains one of the brightest niches within the global steel industry. This webcast will provide insight into the global market size, the split between welded and seamless supply, regional differences, trade flows and historic demand and supply. Crucially, the webcast and the report will address some of the key issues regarding the industry over the medium term. These will include:
- Existing players and new market entrants are building capacity – will the market be able to absorb this?
- What impact does shale gas, oil and NGLs have on OCTG demand in terms of grades, connections and volumes?
- What does the industry cost structure look like and will this change?
- What is the outlook for margins given Metal Bulletin Research’s view on supply and demand?

The increasing adoption of strategic alliances in the steel industry is a relevant trend, with considerable impacts for company’s current and prospective performance. The steel giants rarely survive without partnerships. Consequently, steel enterprises (and its customers and suppliers) must understand how to play the strategic alliance game. Although steel companies have been adopting more and more partnerships, they have many differences regarding: a) motivations; b) preferential stages of production; c) average duration of strategic alliances; d) divorce ratio. This presentation will be cover some of the 24 selected steel companies, showing their similarities and differences among them and, as a consequence, the major issues related to it.

Coinciding with its emergence as a major frontier for mining exploration, Africa has entered a period of political transition that carries profound implications for natural resources investors. While the colonial legacies of corruption, weak states, and irregular transfers of power persist, a new generation of political leaders more responsive to domestic constituencies and more assertive in relation to external investors is also making its mark. This generational shift on the African continent dovetails with broader geopolitical and normative changes that demand the adoption of mutually beneficial approaches to investment and business engagement. This presentation will offer insights on a range of non-technical challenges confronting investors on the continent and will introduce principles to employ in assessing and mitigating these risks.

Coking coal prices were at an all time high in April 2011 partly because of logistics bottlenecks. Since then prices for prime coking coal have fallen by around 50%. Chinese demand is faltering and some suppliers are cutting production, but Peabody and Teck are continuing to expand, anticipating renewed market tightness. Some transport constraints will then again become crucial to how the market and prices develop. This webcast will cover in detail on all of the foregoing, especially the logistics bottlenecks.

You are kindly invited to attend a special webinar dedicated to Metal Bulletin Research’s latest long-term forecast for the global steel metallics industry. MBR will provide an analysis of past trends and forecasts to 2020 for the complete supply chain of the world steel metallics industry for all the key products and sectors.

The North American steel market in 2012 is expected to mirror 2011 in many ways. Demand growth is forecast to be steady, but will remain vulnerable to economic shocks, similar to that experienced last year. Economic reports are pointing to declining unemployment and stronger manufacturing activity, both key to sustainable recovery in steel consumption. Steel mills are reporting stronger demand in the first quarter from most of their key end-use industries in a positive sign for steel markets this year. Although steel demand has increased in early 2012, both through inventory rebuilding and improvement in underlying demand from a number of key consuming industries, underlying cost pressures are a key factor in the upturn in steel prices thus far this year. Meanwhile, domestic steel mills are increasing production in response to higher prices, but if output rises in excess of demand, prices could reverse. We will assess these market factors and present our 2012 forecasts for North American steel flat product prices.

MBR will be offering an analysis on the current global market for seamless and welded OCTG and regional analysis including North America and others. Forecast volumes, trade flows and pricing out to 2016 will also be provided.

At a time of weak aluminium prices, variables in power input costs are playing a keyrole in determining which smelters are most at risk of closure.

Could the current downturn result in the permanent closure of some smelting capacity located in regions where competitive power contracts are a thing of the distant past?

The webcast will provide an overview of our recently released Aluminium Under a New Power Paradigm report. We will address just how exposed the world's aluminium producers are at current metal and power prices. We also take a look into the future, and discuss how power price trends will determine where future smelting capacity will be located and the implications that this will have on aluminium production costs and long run metal prices.

With rising input costs, environmental regulations and a fluid market, the production of Western European steel is looking less economical. Blast furnaces have already been mothballed, and the fear remains that these could be permanently shut.

As with other manufacturing, could outsourcing the production of steel-semis make sense? With its steel overcapacity, China could provide an answer, but China has built its economy on exporting - exporting finished products, rather than semi-finished steel.

So could the close proximity of Eastern Europe steel mills make them a supplier of semi-finished steel into Western Europe?

This webcast presented by Kamil Wlazly on the Aluminium in Transportation market will offer analysis the current market and provide demand forecasts out to 2020 for aluminium
in the transportation sector across key end use sectors and geographical regions.

Persistently high raw material prices and declining global demand for steel products are holding steelmakers margins in a vice-like grip. MBR’s cost analyst presents the implication of current cost conditions for the long and flat products markets.

What is the outlook for the Aluminium Fluoride industry?

This webcast discusses how raw materials markets are affecting the steel flat-rolled markets and looks at how the inventory situation is going to affect pricing in 2011. It outlines measures that steelmakers have taken to improve the value of steel sheet products sold to tube and pipe makers as well as other industries. In addition we give an overview of flat-product pricing and the trends that have evolved since the recession and provide a forecast for prices through the rest of the year.

This presentation will look at the characteristics of the global stainless steel market over the previous year with a regional focus on the US, Europe and Asia. It will examine market fundamentals and the impact that certain developments had on pricing. It also will give a brief overview of the stainless steel raw materials markets before concluding with an outlook and forecast for 2011.

This presentation will give you an insight into the Chinese aluminium market in relation to strong fundamentals. It will also discuss demand and supply drivers combined with the future outlook of the Chinese aluminium industry.

Will this lead to a supply-chain imbalance?

MBR’s latest publication is an analysis of steelmaking capacity expansion projects. Taking reports of fresh projects and expansions along the whole value-chain, the report provides a clear indication of potential shortages and oversupply up to 2015. By breaking projects down by plant type and geography, project finance, purchasing and sales departments can make better informed decisions on how the supply and demand of raw materials through to finished materials will change in the coming years.

This webinar will look at some of the top level findings, and also discuss the benefits of the report.

**Correction to slide 9: German production data should be EU production data, email webcasts@metalbulletinresearch.com for revised slides**

In 2010 a transition to a new system of pricing iron ore started. This new system conferred greater importance to the spot market in the setting of international prices of iron ore. The spot market is small and geographically concentrated around India-China trades.

We will analyse:

• The impact of changing pricing mechanisms on iron ore trade
• The impact of a continued Chinese demand on trade and pricing patterns
• Potential disruptions to current patterns and the emergence of new areas of demand and supply