Mike Riddell will talk about the macroeconomic risks to global financial markets, and some of the signals that suggest the next recession may be sooner than many people think. The talk will touch on the risks posed by global trade wars, tighter monetary policy, commodity prices and China.
• Volatility over the last 10 years has been suppressed by central banks, but if history is any guide, recent monetary policy tightening is a lead indicator of greater asset price volatility and higher risk premia.
• Tighter monetary policy contributes to slower real money supply growth, which is also a lead indictor for global economic activity.
• Higher commodity prices are a sign of strong current growth, but they also imply weaker future growth.