Quantifying Risk with Simulation Using Oracle Crystal Ball

Steve Hoye
Monte Carlo simulation is a widely used technique for dealing with business uncertainty in applications like cost estimation, continuous improvement, engineering, and business forecasting. In this 10 minute segment, we illustrate why simulation is useful for these applications, and demonstrate how it works on a very simple cost-estimation model. The example shows how a single estimate of project cost is naïve regarding expectations and downside exposures of the company to the project.
Dec 27 2010
13 mins
Quantifying Risk with Simulation Using Oracle Crystal Ball
Crystal Ball
More from this community:

Business Intelligence and Analytics

  • Live and recorded (1527)
  • Upcoming (41)
  • Date
  • Rating
  • Views
  • Hadoop is transforming today's Healthcare industry. In this webinar, Charles Boicey covers the various new use cases made possible as the Hadoop ecosystem matures.​

    In 2010 the Clinical Informatics Team at the University of California in Irvine, led by Charles Boicey, looked outside of the conventional Healthcare data ecosystem for new data management solutions - their existing Electronic Health Record and Enterprise Data Warehouse environments no longer met the organization’s needs. They researched "Big Data" technologies in organizations such as Yahoo, LinkedIn, Twitter, and Facebook and concluded that Hadoop could supplement their current ecosystem to solve existing use cases and act as a platform to develop new applications for future solutions and insights.
  • YARN has fundamentally transformed the Hadoop landscape. It has opened Hadoop from a single workload system to one that can now support a multitude of “fit for purpose” processing. In this workshop we will provide an overview of Apache Slider that enables custom applications to run natively in the cluster as a YARN Ready Application. The workshop will include working examples and provide an overview of work being pursued in the community around YARN Docker integration.
  • Effective data governance requires the effective application of people, process, policy and technology to ensure consistent delivery of trusted, connected, and secure data across an enterprise.

    Organizations across all industries are investing in data governance to gain business value from their data to meet industry regulations, reduce the cost of doing business, and grow revenue and profits.

    In this webinar dedicated to data governance, Michael Wodzinski, Director of Information Architecture team, Lisa Bemis, Director of Master Data, and Fabian Torres, Director, Project Management at Houghton Mifflin Harcourt (HMH), global leader in publishing, will share their experiences in implementing a data governance program within HMH. Our guest speakers from HMH will discuss some of the unique data management challenges within HMH, how the data governance program has helped address those issues and open up new opportunities for the company. While walking you through their data governance journey, our guest speakers will offer their insights on how to establish a viable data governance practice in a complex enterprise environment, share their best practices and lessons learned. David Lyle, VP of Produce Strategy, from Informatica will share his observations in the data governance space, discuss Informatica’s data governance solutions and our thought leadership behind those offerings.
  • Attack Intelligence to Power Tomorrow’s Cyber Response.

    Preparing to combat every threat and vulnerability is a war that no cybersecurity professional can win today. Speed, accuracy and visibility of threats and active attacks is critical to defending against APTs and other sophisticated attacks responsible for today’s headline-grabbing data breaches. The next generation of advanced threat prevention solutions will require a significant shift in how we incorporate threat and attack visibility into everyday security operations, enabling incident responders to identify and stop campaigns as they happen.

    Join us as IDC’s Research Vice President for Security Products Services Charles Kolodgy shares his view of the threat landscape, including how threats are evolving, how cybercriminals are becoming more sophisticated and what new solutions are necessary to combat APTs.
  • Growing installs is the number one mission for any mobile app developer, and any user acquisition strategy generally consists of a mix of organic installs and paid campaigns. But many see these as separate and distinct. Not true. To get the most out of each — especially for smaller developers — it’s critical to understand how paid installs impact organic installs, and vice versa.

    In this webinar, Ian Sefferman of TUNE will share the eye-opening results of a study investigating the correlation between paid campaigns and organic installs (yes, it’s positive), and how this varies depending on the app category and operating system. Christian Calderon of DOTS will dive into the strategies and tactics that increase both paid and organic installs, and how they work together.

    What you’ll learn:
    For every paid install, how many organic installs an app can expect to see
    How the multiplier effect impacts app categories differently
    How organic installs and engaged users affect your paid strategy and spend
    Best-practice examples on what really works to maximize both organic installs and paid campaigns for highest yield

    #paidorganic
    #appmktg

    Speakers:
    Ian Sefferman, GM, App Store Analytics
    Christian Calderon, Head of Marketing, DOTS
  • Based on recent research by analyst Bob Larrivee of AIIM, this webinar will address how organizations can leverage technology to identify, evaluate and optimize business processes to increase operational efficiency.

    Join us as we explore:
    - Drivers for problem-solving, tracking KPIs, process failures and workflow management
    - How technology can reduce errors and exceptions that lead to lost business and non-compliance
    - Increasing visibility to optimize processes, reduce costs and deliver a superior customer experience
  • Scaling multiple databases with a single legacy storage system works well from a cost perspective, but workload conflicts and hardware contention make these solutions an unattractive choice for anything but low-performance applications.

    Attend the webinar to learn about:
    - How SolidFire’s all-flash storage system provides high performance at massive scale for mixed workload processing while simultaneously controlling costs and guaranteeing performance
    - How to deploy four or more database copies using SolidFire’s Oracle Validated Configuration, at a price point at or below the cost of traditional storage systems
    - SolidFire’s Quality of Service (QoS) guarantee; every copy receives dedicated all-flash performance, so IT admins can deliver solutions with confidence and maximize business efficiency
  • Scaling multiple databases with a single legacy storage system works well from a cost perspective, but workload conflicts and hardware contention make these solutions an unattractive choice for anything but low-performance applications.

    Attend the webinar to learn about:
    - How SolidFire’s all-flash storage system provides high performance at massive scale for mixed workload processing while simultaneously controlling costs and guaranteeing performance
    - How to deploy four or more database copies using SolidFire’s Oracle Validated Configuration, at a price point at or below the cost of traditional storage systems
    - SolidFire’s Quality of Service (QoS) guarantee; every copy receives dedicated all-flash performance, so IT admins can deliver solutions with confidence and maximize business efficiency
  • In data visualization, we map data values and relationships onto visual dimensions to create a graphical representation for exploration and analysis. How can we best use the power of the human visual system to make these values and relationships clear? Using examples from information design, cartography and data graphics, we will demonstrate how insights from research in color perception, perceptual organization and visual attention have helped define best practices for visual analysis.

    You will learn how to utilize a few perceptual and cognitive building blocks that can inform a wide variety of visualization choices, and to demonstrate how these influenced the design of the Tableau product.
  • In data visualization, we map data values and relationships onto visual dimensions to create a graphical representation for exploration and analysis. How can we best use the power of the human visual system to make these values and relationships clear? Using examples from information design, cartography and data graphics, we will demonstrate how insights from research in color perception, perceptual organization and visual attention have helped define best practices for visual analysis.

    You will learn how to utilize a few perceptual and cognitive building blocks that can inform a wide variety of visualization choices, and to demonstrate how these influenced the design of the Tableau product.
  • Channel
  • Channel profile
  • Process Performance Modeling using Crystal Ball Recorded: Feb 11 2011 21 mins
    Crystal Ball is a powerful enabler in the modeling & analysis of performance and its associated risk and opportunity. Process Performance Models relate behavior and interaction of processes to an outcome order to predict future performance and manage risk. The purpose of this presentation is provide an overview of a suite of highly effective Process Performance Models developed and deployed at Raytheon Integrated Defense Systems using Crystal Ball. To be included in this presentation are Raytheon’s Systems Lifecycle Analysis Model (SLAM), Scheduling Analysis of Variability Engine (SAVE), Predictive Cost Model (PCM) & Effort based on Size & Productivity (ESP) Process Performance Models.
  • What's New in Oracle Crystal Ball Recorded: Jan 27 2011 9 mins
    This webcast will give the viewer a tour of the new features and capabilities in Oracle Crystal Ball, as of release 11.1.2.1.000. Over the last two and a half years, Oracle has invested substantial development resources into Crystal Ball, adding to, and improving all aspects of the solution. The core capabilities of predictive modeling, risk modeling and decision modeling have been strengthened and expanded. We’ve solidified our traditional spreadsheet-based foundation with support for the latest Excel and Microsoft release. Additionally, by leveraging Oracle product development resources and know-how, we’ve added new unique integration features that take Crystal Ball well beyond the spreadsheet.
  • Quantifying Risk with Simulation Using Oracle Crystal Ball Recorded: Dec 27 2010 13 mins
    Monte Carlo simulation is a widely used technique for dealing with business uncertainty in applications like cost estimation, continuous improvement, engineering, and business forecasting. In this 10 minute segment, we illustrate why simulation is useful for these applications, and demonstrate how it works on a very simple cost-estimation model. The example shows how a single estimate of project cost is naïve regarding expectations and downside exposures of the company to the project.
  • CB for Continuous Improvement: The Right Technology Right Now Recorded: Oct 12 2010 22 mins
    Crystal Ball for Continuous Improvement: The Right Technology Right Now

    Continuous improvement is currently being used by world class companies to improve profitability and gain competitive advantage. In this short presentation, variability is identified as the culprit in many companies’ poor operations. Variability has historically been difficult to deal with as companies try to model and forecast the impact it has on their processes. Crystal Ball is demonstrated to empower companies to estimate variability, model and forecast its impact on their processes, and ultimately enable them to design their operations to effectively mitigate the negative impact of variability on their bottom line.
  • Crystal Ball and Cost Risk Analysis Recorded: Oct 8 2010 8 mins
    A cost estimate is a projection of a future occurrence. At its most basic, cost is price times quantity, and in any estimate either price, quantity, or both, are uncertain to some degree. When a cost projection includes hundreds, thousands or more uncertain elements, it’s easy to understand why some sort of cost risk analysis has long been considered the best way to calculate how much to reserve in contingencies against overruns.
    In today’s presentation we will look at the risk assessment work that goes into a complete cost estimate, the related business challenges and the Oracle solution.
  • Como Optimizar Portafolios estrategicamente Recorded: Aug 30 2010 58 mins
    Tandem y Oracle-Crystal Ball los invitan a participar al próximo seminario online sobre "Cómo optimizar portafolios estratégicamente".
    Cuando el nivel de incertidumbre es alto y los tiempos y presupuestos son acotados se torna fundamental decidir de manera eficiente. Los ejecutivos se enfrentan a un dilema habitual: ¿cómo asignar recursos escasos a diferentes tareas, activos, marcas o productos con resultados inciertos? El ejecutivo debe decidir cómo asignar tiempos, presupuesto y personas a diferentes proyectos, programas, productos, canales, regiones, filiales o unidades de negocio, de manera de mantener balanceada la operación y obtener los mejores resultados posibles a un menor costo. El análisis de portafolios es un método que ayuda a evaluar alternativas estimando el impacto sobre la performance global de la compañía. De esta manera, permite seleccionar la combinación de alternativas que optimiza los objetivos estratégicos.
    Los diferentes tópicos a desarrollar durante el seminario incluirán:

    . Los conceptos claves del Análisis de Portafolios.
    . Etapas de una empresa hacia la implementación de la Gestión Estratégica de Portafolios
    . Decisión de Optimización de proyectos maximizando la eficiencia de los recursos en contextos de alta incertidumbre.
    . Los beneficios de la optimización de portafolios utilizando Crystal Ball.

    El evento será presentado por Federico Esseiva, Director de Tandem Soluciones.
  • Accurate Forecasting within the Business Planning Cycle Recorded: Aug 27 2010 13 mins
    Forecasting, particularly as part of any organization’s planning process, is a key factor in the organization’s success. If one considers a plan as both what the organization would like the future to be, as well as a roadmap to get there, then the forecast upon which the plan is built, is a critical starting point on that road to success. This presentation will focus on how to create forecasts that are both comprehensive and accurate so that the execution of the plan throughout the year does indeed contribute to the organization’s key business requirement of improving revenue and margin.
  • Data to Decision: Business Practices for a More Accurate Forecast Recorded: Aug 11 2010 64 mins
    How different does a forecast have to be for you to make a different decision? Accuracy in forecasting at all levels of the organization ultimately rolls up to more certainty in financial forecasts, resulting in fewer surprises, more credibility and better profits. So how do you ensure your organization is delivering the most accurate forecast possible, especially when historical data is limited? Industry experts point to Time Series Forecasting as the answer for businesses today.
  • Simulate for Success! Oil & Gas Recorded: Aug 3 2010 17 mins
    Short overview of Crystal Ball applications in the Oil & Gas industry
  • Robust Tolerance Design Recorded: Jul 23 2010 13 mins
    Tolerance stackups are fundamental engineering design tools which ensure the fit and function of products. Often times, the design engineer estimates the dimensional target values based on his/her experience, which tends to be ambiguous. What is difficult for them to account for is actual part variation. As a result, the defect rate of new products often comes as a surprise. Oracle Crystal Ball enables one to pick nominal values that will minimize the defect rate of new product launches.
  • Proved, Probable and Possible Recorded: Jul 9 2010 13 mins
    Proved, Probable and Possible: A systematic process for stochastic reserves estimates

    The ability to estimate reserves stochastically – mainly with Monte Carlo simulation - is a critical part of Upstream Oil and Gas E&P.

    While Monte Carlo simulation works well for producing the probabilities, using spreadsheets as the modeling environment can be challenging. Customers tell us that they waste time manually linking and aggregating spreadsheets; that they can’t perform a stochastic estimate at any but the lowest zone level; that it’s difficult to report and share results from multiple analysts.

    Oracle’s solution answers these requirements. It keeps Monte Carlo simulation with a spreadsheet user interface, for the easy frontline user experience, and combines it with a robust and scalable database for storage, aggregation and reporting.

    This short webcast will show you how you can move beyond today’s spreadsheet challenges and focus on truly understanding and managing the uncertainty in your reserves to optimize value.
Live and Recorded webcasts, product demos and tutorials for Finance, B
Oracle Crystal Ball is the leading spreadsheet-based application suite for predictive modeling, forecasting, simulation, and optimization. It gives you unparalleled insight into the critical factors affecting risk. With Crystal Ball, you can make the right tactical decisions to reach your objectives and gain a competitive edge under even the most uncertain market conditions.
To ensure our customers have access to the best and brightest information on key industry topics, we are delivering presentations from Industry and Product Experts, Existing Customers, and Thought Leaders. Complimenting the presentation calendar is an ongoing set of Product Demos and Self-Service Tutorials delivered by Oracle Product Experts. The Oracle Crystal Ball Channel is the home of Informed Business Decisions.

Embed in website or blog

Successfully added emails: 0
Remove all
  • Title: Quantifying Risk with Simulation Using Oracle Crystal Ball
  • Live at: Dec 27 2010 10:00 pm
  • Presented by: Steve Hoye
  • From:
Your email has been sent.
or close
You must be logged in to email this