At ten years this is the longest expansion in the US economy since records began in 1857 and yet a recession does not look to be imminent. Trevor Greetham shares insights into this historic phenomenon, using his Investment Clock approach to explain why we could be about to embark on a fourth ‘mini cycle’ upswing triggered by a new round of monetary easing. This line of reasoning suggests the next global downturn could be as far away as 2021. Investors should brace themselves for continued volatility though. Geopolitical risk could yet derail the world economy if the trade war intensifies or military conflict disrupts the flow of oil from the Middle East.