Navigating the fracture between the real economy and bond markets

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Presented by

Flavio Carpenzano

About this talk

Investors today need to balance a challenging fundamental backdrop with the road to a full recovery likely to be long and the likelihood that governments and central banks will respond forcefully to any setbacks. It’s not just about disruption and dislocations caused by COVID-19 as there are other threats, such as the deteriorating global geopolitical environment. Yet, only an unlikely combination of economic disappointment and policy error would justify a negative view. Central bank support and ultra-low government bond yields will drive strong demand for higher-yielding credit sectors, even as fundamental conditions appear to deteriorate in the corporate market. With valuations still above long-term averages and the technical picture a positive one, investors should consider leaning into credit risk as the global economy heals and spreads continue to compress/normalize although being selective is crucial. Crossover (BBB/BB), banks and short maturity high yield bonds are currently among AB strongest convictions.
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