Name: 2024 Airlines and Railways Outlook
Start: 2024-01-29T18:00:00Z
End: 2024-01-29T18:00:21.000Z
Location: BrightTALK
Rating: 0

Morningstar DBRS is a leading provider of independent rating services and opinions for corporate and sovereign entities, financial institutions, and project and structured finance instruments globally. Rating more than 4,000 issuers and 60,000 securities, we are one of the top four credit rating agencies in the world and a market leader in Canada, the U.S. and Europe in multiple asset classes.



Morningstar DBRS expects more downgrades and rising defaults into 2025 for privately rated middle-market companies, though at a slower pace compared to 2024. While many issuers continued to face challenging operating conditions, we note that fundamentals have been strengthening across a broader set of less vulnerable middle-market firms. 

Join us for a webinar on Tuesday, January 28 at 3 p.m. EST for a discussion focused on our 2025 private credit outlook. The webinar will be hosted by Michael Dimler, Senior Vice President, Private Credit and moderated by Michael Zbinovec, Senior Vice President, Private Credit. The discussion will focus on recent trends in credit ratings and underlying credit quality as well as key market factors pertaining to private credit. 

Following the presentation, the audience is invited to participate in a Q&A session.

2025 Credit Outlook: Private Credit

The overall F2025 credit rating outlook for the Canadian banks is largely stable, as we expect monetary policy easing to provide some much-needed relief to indebted consumers and businesses. Although we expect further deterioration in credit metrics heading into 2025, an anticipated moderation in PCL in the second half of the year and a generally positive economic growth outlook in North America will likely result in improved earnings. However, the operating and macroeconomic environments still face some challenges with risks skewed heavily to the downside as a result of heightened policy uncertainty and geopolitical risks.

Join us for a discussion on growth, profitability, credit quality, and capitalization of large and medium-sized Canadian banks in the year ahead.

2025 Credit Outlook: Canadian Banking

Join us on 28 January for a 2025 Credit Outlook webinar on European Auto Industry, Finance, and ABS hosted by Robert Streda, Senior Vice President, European Corporate Ratings, Halil Senturk, Assistant Vice President, European Financial Institution Ratings and Guglielmo Panizza, Vice President, European ABS Ratings. 
Key topics to be discussed: 

• The automotive market conditions in Europe, highlighting factors such as potential tariffs, and our overall credit rating outlook for the automotive industry in 2025. 
• The performance of captive finance and auto leasing companies, and our credit outlook for the European auto finance sector in 2025.
• Trends affecting the performance of portfolios of auto loans and leases and the impact on our European Auto ABS credit ratings in 2025.
 
The discussion will last approximately 30 minutes and will be followed by an interactive question-and-answer session. We welcome all who wish to participate.

2025 Credit Outlook: European Auto Industry, Finance and ABS

Join Morningstar DBRS for a 2025 Credit Outlook webinar on Italy's macroeconomic economic outlook presented by Javier Rouillet, Senior Vice President, Global Sovereign Ratings.

In this webinar, we will discuss overall recent economic developments, main growth drivers and factors to watch in 2025. Also, we will be discussing public finance trends.

2025 Credit Outlook: Italy

Join Morningstar DBRS on 12 December 2024 for a webinar hosted by Sonja Forster, Senior Vice President, European Financial Institution Ratings and Arnaud Journois, Senior Vice President, European Financial Institution Ratings. Our analysts will focus on European banking trends in 2024 and delve into the challenges expected in 2025, with emphasis on the impact of rate cuts, asset quality trends, the geopolitical environment and regulatory changes.

The discussion will last approximately 30 minutes and will be followed by an interactive question-and-answer session. Morningstar DBRS welcomes all who wish to participate.

2025 Credit Outlook: European Banking

Morningstar DBRS released its semiannual North America Macroeconomic Update. The U.S. economy continues to experience robust and broad-based growth. The IMF projects the economy will expand 2.8% this year, which is more than double the growth rate of the next fastest country among the G-10. Whereas the U.S. is operating at or above capacity, Canada is operating with slack. We expect growth in Canada to accelerate in 2025 from its lackluster performance in 2024. Labor markets look better balanced going into 2025, and inflation trends are favorable. The greatest risk to the outlook comes from the potential imposition of tariffs.

2025 Credit Outlook: North America Macroeconomic Update

During the third quarter of 2024, Morningstar DBRS issued and refreshed a total of 381 CEs across 362 borrowers for 27 lenders including managers of CLOs and private credit funds. Total volumes include CEs assigned to new borrowers and existing CEs refreshed for periodic review and amendments, as well as a handful of internal assessments. Currently, Morningstar DBRS assigns CEs to about 1,400 leveraged corporate borrowers. CEs are not credit ratings, but rather point-in-time assessments of credit quality, which are used to estimate borrower default likelihood in CLOs, rated feeder funds, investment fund debt, equipment leases, and other structured finance transactions.

Join Morningstar DBRS on December 11 at 1:00 p.m. ET for a Frontline Perspectives webinar detailing third-quarter CE activity and performance, presented by Jerry van Koolbergen and Orest Gavrylak. The discussion will highlight overall credit quality, financial metrics year-to-date, revenue growth, and anticipated CE volume in the final quarter of 2024.

Frontline Perspectives: Credit Estimate Quarterly Snapshot Q3 2024

The credit quality of Canadian provinces remains strong and resilient. Under the weight of higher interest rates, economic growth has been lacklustre in 2024. As a result, fiscal improvement has largely stalled or taken a step backwards in some cases; however, provincial debt-to-GDP remains largely in check, helped by material upward revisions to historical GDP.  Looking ahead to 2025, we see little prospect of ratings improvement, while downside may be increasing for some. A further easing in monetary policy is expected to provide a boost to domestic economic activity, although changes to federal immigration policy and the threat of more restrictive trade policy cloud the outlook. Political uncertainty remains heightened in Canada with a federal election required by the fourth quarter, if not earlier, and the potential for an early election in Canada's most populous province, Ontario.

2025 Credit Outlook: Canadian Provincial Ratings

DBRS Morningstar invites you to attend a webinar on the 10th of December. The webinar will be hosted by Mario De Cicco, Vice President, Global Insurance & Pension Ratings and Javier Rouillet, Senior Vice President, Global Sovereign Ratings

In this webinar, they will provide observations on the performance of the Italian Insurance sector during 2024, as well as our outlook for 2025. Our analysts will share their perspectives on the potential challenges and opportunities for Italian insurers that lay ahead in the current macroeconomic and geopolitical environment.

The discussion will last approximately 30 minutes and will be followed by an interactive question-and-answer session. Morningstar DBRS welcomes all who wish to participate.

*This webinar will be in English

2025 Credit Outlook: Italian Insurance

Global economic conditions have remained broadly favorable during 2024. as major central banks in the Americas and Europe have begun reducing interest rates with the easing of inflationary pressures. As rates continue to gradually decrease, monetary policy is expected to be less of a drag on economic activity in 2025. While the IMF World Economic Outlook predicts global growth in the year ahead, we remain cautious of the impacts of U.S. policy changes, regional conflicts, China's domestic growth and tension with Western democracies, and increasing climate and weather risks.

Further, democracies with federal elections in 2025 include Canada, Australia, Germany, and Poland, all of which could change the global landscape. Affordability concerns and low consumer confidence has persisted in many advanced economies, resulting in political discontent and weaker private consumption growth.

2025 Credit Outlook: Sovereign Ratings

Join Morningstar DBRS on 05 December for a Frontline Perspectives Webinar on navigating geopolitical challenges. This panel will explore the major geopolitical challenges currently shaping the global landscape. The discussion will cover critical regions, including the Baltics, Scandinavia and both Northern and Southern Europe, with a focus on the impact of security 

The panel will also examine how these geopolitical risks influence European sovereign credit ratings, highlighting potential mitigating factors and the likelihood of opportunities

Frontline Perspective - Navigating Geopolitical Challenges:  Insights from European  Sovereign Analysts

Join Morningstar DBRS for a webinar on 04 December hosted by Jorge Espinosa, Assistant Vice President, Global Sovereign Ratings. 

In this webinar, they will provide insights on the evolution of the fiscal performance of the Spanish regions in 2024, as well as our outlook for 2025. Our analysts will share their perspectives on the potential challenges and opportunities for these regions and discuss interest rates, debt metrics and fiscal consolidation.
The discussion will last approximately 30 minutes and will be followed by an interactive question-and-answer session. Morningstar DBRS welcomes all who wish to participate.

2025 Credit Outlook: Spanish Autonomous Communities

Join us for a discussion on the Canadian Structured Finance Market, where panelists will focus on the state of the Canadian consumer in the current macroeconomic environment. You can also expect a general performance update of asset classes and a deep dive into the EV market as the sector grows.

2025 Credit Outlook Toronto: Canadian Structured Finance Performance Update

Kunal Kapoor, CEO, Morningstar sat down with Suzanne Akers, CRO, AIMCo to discuss how their organizations are navigating sustainability in long-term investments, incorporating ESG risks and changing market dynamics.

2025 Credit Outlook Toronto: Morningstar and AIMCo Fireside Chat

While the march towards energy transition continues, the road is filled with unique challenges. Join us for an in-depth conversation with Matthew A. Akman, Executive Vice President, Corporate Strategy and President, Power at Enbridge, as he provides his insights on Enbridge’s approach to investing in renewable energy. The discussion will include an overview of Enbridge’s investment preferences and a discussion on the challenges associated with the regulatory environment, tariffs, access to key raw materials and grid infrastructure.

2025 Credit Outlook Toronto: How Enbridge is Navigating the Energy Transition Roadway

Morningstar DBRS invites you to join us at 2025 Credit Outlook: Germany, where we will present key insights and risk factors for the year ahead.

2025 Credit Outlook: Germany

Numerous countries and corporations globally have now established definitive energy transition objectives. Progress is underway, but many challenges lie ahead in meeting the various objectives. In a panel discussion moderated by Aran Thavaraja, Director, Corporate Debt Strategy, BMO Capital Markets, our Corporate analytical team will discuss how rated entities in project finance, auto manufacturing, engineering and construction, airlines, and fuel production are managing the energy transition pathway. We will provide our thoughts and opinions on planned strategies, progress, challenges, geopolitical considerations, and credit implications for entities in these specific sectors.

2025 Credit Outlook Toronto: Assessing Energy Transition Strategies and Credit Implications

Although the Bank of Canada has started its monetary policy easing cycle, credit, regulatory, and regional challenges still persist for the Canadian banks. Housing costs continue to weigh down Canadian households, commercial real estate, particularly the office sector, remains a concern, the U.S. regional bank sector is posing headwinds, regulatory developments continue to drive capital management strategies, and operational risk management issues are causing heightened concerns.

2025 Credit Outlook Toronto: Canadian Banks - Credit, Regulatory, and Regional Challenges Persist

Autos, Capital Goods, Semiconductor, Construction & Property Development Outlook

2024 Retailers and Restaurants Outlook

2024 Telecommunications Outlook

2024 Consumer Products Outlook

2024 Corporate Credit Outlook

Despite a weak macroeconomic environment, the transportation industry should be relatively resilient in 2024. Airline sector growth should normalize in 2024 as the industry achieves full recovery to pre-pandemic levels. That said, potential headwinds that could impact the sector include a significant economic downturn and geopolitical tension escalations. 

On the railway front, railroads should push for price and productivity increases to compensate for the volume weakness. However, volumes may rebound by the second half of 2024, especially in rate sensitive sectors, as interest rate cuts start to materialize. Any volume rebound in conjunction with price actions and productivity improvements should help with the margins. 

We will follow with a Q&A for all who wish to participate.

2024 Airlines and Railways Outlook

Transportation

Airlines

Railways

Capital Markets

Interest Rates

Asset Management

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2024 Airlines and Railways Outlook

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