Market Outlook and Portfolio Positioning: Dealing with an uncertain world

The Global Economy at the beginning of this year was hit by arguably two black swan events. The collapse of OPEC-Russia cooperation on oil production has triggered a financial market shock. This event was however dwarfed by a coronavirus-induced growth shock on an unprecedented scale. Theoretically, we should have been prepared.

We live in an era of rapidly changing global landscapes and local environments. Viruses with RNA as their genetic material can quickly adapt to and exploit these varying conditions” – This and similar quotes, which were warning us even more explicitly about a potential pandemic, we could have read in books published already five or even 10 years ago. And indeed the risk – the “spread of infectious diseases” - featured as second on the World Economic Forum’s Global Risk by impact register in 2015. Yet, just a year later it went down to 8th position and has featured even lower than that (in 10th place) in the last 3 years. 'Climate action failure' and 'weapons of mass distraction' risks took over the prominent positions on the risk register.

But how are companies preparing for and hedging against low probability, high impact risks?

Should black swans events be hedged against or is this an ‘opportunity’ to re-design business models?

Can these risks be hedged and/or insured? At what cost (if at all)?

Who ‘owns’ these risks in the organisation and how can Boards add the most value?

Are issues like Climate Preparedness put aside or are they take on a new meaning?



These and many more aspects we will be discussing with our excellent panel:

Andrew Gates – CEO – Macquarie Bank Europe
Ioannis Ioannou – Associate Professor of Strategy and Entrepreneurship – London Business School
John Coley – Head of Risk Consulting Practice for EMEA – Norton Rose Fulbright
Nazim Osmancik – Chief Risk Officer, Energy Trading - Centrica
Moderated by Dana Hanby – Managing Director – ESG Nexus