Morningstar’s Fourth Quarter 2023 US Stock Market Outlook

Presented by

Dave Sekera; CFA, Chief U.S. Market Strategist, Preston Caldwell; Head of U.S. Economics

About this talk

Despite tight monetary policy, the U.S. economy has outperformed expectations this year, leading to a boost in our short-term growth forecast. However, while we don't foresee a recession, we do anticipate the looming impact of high interest rates will begin slowing the rate of economic growth during the fourth quarter. Better than expected earnings and excitement surrounding artificial intelligence spurred a strong rally off of the undervalued levels at the beginning of the year. However, following this rally, the market is now approaching our fair value estimate. Looking forward, as we enter an economic slowdown later this year and with less margin of safety, investors may need the intestinal fortitude to ride out heightened market volatility.  Join Morningstar’s Dave Sekera, CFA, Chief U.S. Market Strategist and Preston Caldwell, Head of U.S. Economics as they: - Break down our valuations and identify undervalued opportunities across categories, sectors, and stocks.   - Highlight investable long-term secular growth themes.   - Provide our forecasts for real U.S. GDP, inflation, and interest rates.  In our market outlook, we utilize a bottom-up perspective to determine market valuation. By leveraging off of the 1,500 companies covered by Morningstar's equity analysts, we identify which areas are undervalued versus which are overvalued. From growth stocks to value stocks and from small-cap to large-cap, we will identify where we see value today. Following the presentation, we take as many questions from the audience as time allows.   Presented by: Dave Sekera, CFA, Chief U.S. Market Strategist, Morningstar Preston Caldwell, Head of U.S. Economics, Morningstar Moderated by Susan Dziubinski, Investment Specialist, Morningstar This webinar has been accepted by the CFP® Board for one continuing education (CE) credit for CFP® designations.
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