Using @RISK Distribution Fitting to Project Oil Prices Under Uncertainty

Presented by

Manuel Carmona, Director Edy Training LTD

About this talk

Projecting oil prices under conditions of uncertainty has always been and will always remain a challenge. What makes this more of a challenge is the acceptance that the oil, and possibly other commodity and stock markets, do not behave in a random fashion generating normal distribution patterns. As we will show, a partially manipulated/partially random model for oil prices incorporating uncertainty generates U shaped distributions. These distributions are difficult to model with a single best fitting distribution, but a segmented approach to obtaining several best-fitting distributions of the prescribed ranges will be shown to be a useful substitute. This practical webinar will explore the subject of distribution fitting with @RISK and is based in a chapter of the book energy risk modeling by Roy Nersesian published by Palisade.

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