Lessons from COVID: Embracing Uncertainty Part of the Decision-making Process

When will this lock-down end? Should I get tested? Should I disinfect my groceries? How long until my work will go back to normal? In this new “COVID-19 era” many of us had to get used to dealing with these and other uncertainties, some with serious potential consequences. In this webinar, we will start by discussing how probabilistic models helped in guiding COVID decisions where the outcome was highly uncertain. But uncertainties are not just important when making decisions concerning epidemics but also affect most business decisions. Using case studies, we will illustrate the importance of accounting for this uncertainty in our decision-making: 1. How to use Monte Carlo simulation for your business/planning given current COVID uncertainties. 2. More generally, probabilistic models (and probabilistic thinking) can ensure that our plans are robust and thrive in a variety of future scenarios. We will illustrate how increasing business resilience through probabilistic modeling can become a competitive advantage. 3. Models can “learn” over time, and consider how new information may change our best course of action. 4. Risk management should be a key part of management’s decision-making, and not perceived as a separate cost-center, but as a way to add value to the organization.