Part 1: Deep Dive into Input Distribution Selection - Univariate Data

Presented by

Dr. Steve Van Drew, Consultant & Trainer

About this talk

This series provides @RISK users with guidance on settings to use in the Fit Distributions to Data dialog box, and insight necessary for narrowing down the often-overwhelming candidate list of probability distributions available in @RISK for modeling inputs. We will examine in-depth: - What settings to use in the multiple tabs and radio buttons/drop-down boxes within the Fit Distributions to Data dialog box - How to know which test result(s) to pay the most attention to - Nuances of the distribution choice that involve both art and science - Subtle differences between the triangular and PERT distributions - How to interview experts, avoid biases associated with subjective probability assessment, and turn interview results into a defensible input distribution Whether a newcomer to @RISK and input distribution selection or an experienced user seeking amplification on these topics, this three-part, deep-dive series was developed with you in mind. Part I: Distribution Fitting of Univariate Data Part I of this series provides in-depth coverage of the @RISK Fit Distributions to Data dialog box settings, the five goodness of fit tests performed when fitting univariate data, and some judgmental aspects of distribution selection that involve both art and science.

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