Part 3: Deep Dive into Input Distribution Selection - Defensible Distributions

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Presented by

Dr. Steve Van Drew, Consultant & Trainer

About this talk

This series provides @RISK users with guidance on settings to use in the Fit Distributions to Data dialog box, and insight necessary for narrowing down the often-overwhelming candidate list of probability distributions available in @RISK for modeling inputs. We will examine in-depth: 1. What settings to use in the multiple tabs and radio buttons/drop-down boxes within the Fit Distributions to Data dialog box 2. How to know which test result(s) to pay the most attention to 3. Nuances of the distribution choice that involve both art and science 4. Subtle differences between the triangular and PERT distributions 5. How to interview experts, avoid biases associated with subjective probability assessment, and turn interview results into a defensible input distribution Whether a newcomer to @RISK and input distribution selection or an experienced user seeking amplification on these topics, this three-part, deep-dive series was developed with you in mind. Part III: Turning Expert Opinion into Defensible Distributions This webinar will provide in-depth coverage of subjective probability assessment, to include a discussion of considerations for interviewing experts and minimizing the effect of biases like anchoring and adjustment, followed by a demonstration of how to use @RISK to identify the best fitting distribution from interview results.

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