Hi [[ session.user.profile.firstName ]]

Insights about Decision Analysis With Case Study Models And Applications

The DecisionTools Suite is an integrated set of programs for risk analysis and decision making under uncertainty. DecisionTools Suite software integrates seamlessly with Microsoft Excel, and includes:

@RISK – Discover Monte Carlo simulation and scenario analysis for investment appraisal.
PrecisionTree – Build a Decision Tree analysis for oil exploration.
TopRank – Learn how to analyze variable sensitivity and explore in depth MsExcel spreadsheet models.
StatTools – Overview the statistical analysis procedures available.
Neural Tools- Implement a credit assessment Neural Network model in Excel.
Evolver – Explore the power of Genetic Algorithms to solve complex optimization problems.

The DecisionTools Suite enables endless applications, including; Cash Flow & Financial Analysis, Multi-stage Decision Modeling, Portfolio Optimization & Resource Allocation, Enterprise Risk Management and many others. During the webinar we will review some models and modeling techniques as well as many interesting product features for decision makers and modelers.
Recorded Mar 10 2021 70 mins
Your place is confirmed,
we'll send you email reminders
Presented by
Manuel Carmona, Director Edy Training
Presentation preview: Insights about Decision Analysis With Case Study Models And Applications
  • Channel
  • Channel profile
  • Análisis De Riesgo Estadístico De Plagas Jul 23 2021 3:00 pm UTC 75 mins
    Martha Elva Ramírez Guzmán, Ph.D Statistics, Colegio de Postgraduados
    El proceso de análisis de riesgo de plagas (ARP), es un metodología de prevención que se utiliza en los procesos de importación y exportación de productos agrícolas, para minimizar la probabilidad del riesgo de introducción de plagas como hongos, bacterias, malezas, nemátodos y virus, asociados a semillas, granos, frutas y hortalizas, material vegetal propagativo, flor cortada y follaje fresco. Por lo tanto, como sistema de prevención es fundamental, que Ministerios de Agricultura, académicos e investigadores, conozcan y manejen @RISK como una herramienta estadística amigable que les permita a estimar la probabilidad de la introducción, dispersión y establecimiento de plagas en su país, así como estimar el impacto económico y social de introducirse la plaga, utilizando miles de simulaciones Monte Carlo, las cuales simulan el conocimiento de expertos, en la introducción de plagas fitosanitarias. Por lo anterior, en esta plática se desarrollará un ejemplo en donde por medio de @RISK, se estima el riesgo fitosanitario de introducción de plagas que podrían causar daños muy importantes en la economía de un país.
  • Estimating the Required Returns of Entrepreneurs Jun 24 2021 3:00 pm UTC 75 mins
    Samuel Mongrut, Ph.D.
    In this talk, we will conduct an introduction to the prospective and risk analysis methodology proposed by Mongrut and Juarez (2018) to assess a new startup. In the process, we will explain how to estimate different possible entrepreneurs' required returns that will change across years depending on the business risk within each scenario. We will also explain the implication of the typical overconfidence bias in the estimation of forward required returns and the importance of designing contingent strategies per scenario.

    Presented by Samuel Mongrut, Ph.D.
  • Risk Analysis in Oil & Gas: Forecasting Production Curves May 14 2021 2:00 pm UTC 75 mins
    Rafael Hartke, CEO of Imagine Risks and Analytics
    This webinar will present a hands-on example of how to forecast production curves, including the effect of uncertainty and noise in the data and in the model.
    We will use the tools provided by the DecisionTools Suite to:
    (i) Understand historical production data
    (ii) Propose model and estimate parameters for the historical production data
    (iii) Build a forecasting model (including risk)
    (iv) Simulate the production curve using Monte Carlo Simulation
    (v) Analyze the simulation results and discuss how to best present them
  • Modelling Natural Catastrophe Risks from First Principles May 13 2021 3:00 pm UTC 75 mins
    Derek Thrumble Managing Partner, Analytics – Gallagher Specialty London, UK
    The example will be based upon major US Hurricanes 1950-2020 to illustrate a model developed to analyze the risk to a portfolio of offshore oil and gas assets and to review and compare the effectiveness of traditional insurance products and alternative products (parametric solutions). The case study will consider an appropriate model for the frequency of events (Poisson or other distributions). A review of damage or vulnerability models (Beta or other distributions) to convert wind speed/intensity into a percentage of value at risk. An illustration of approaches to analyze the impact of insurance structure on the resulting financial losses (Monte Carlo Simulation combining frequency and severity; RISKCOMPOUND). Deriving key metrics to compare options (cost of capital compared to volatility reduction, SOLVER).

    Presented by Derek Thrumble Managing Partner, Analytics – Gallagher Specialty
  • Building Predictive Models with the DecisionTools Suite May 6 2021 2:00 pm UTC 75 mins
    Rafael Hartke, CEO of Imagine Risks and Analytics
    This webinar will present how to use the DecisionTool Suite to build predictive models based on historical data.
    Both public and private databases can provide important insights for forecasting and planning, for example, historical prices and volumes, production times, commodity and energy prices, demand curves, and macroeconomic variables.
    We will present 3 tools from the DecisionTools Suite: @RISK, StatTools, and NeuralTools. We'll then apply them to the tasks of understanding historical data and forecasting their future value - including the uncertainty of the underlying variables and the error level of the models.
  • Simulation with Historical Data Using Monte Carlo Simulation Apr 28 2021 2:00 pm UTC 75 mins
    Rafael Hartke, CEO of Imagine Risks and Analytics
    Both public and private databases can provide important insights for forecasting and planning. For example, historical prices and volumes, production times, commodity and energy prices, demand curves, and macroeconomic variables.

    This webinar will present how to use the @RISK to interpret and use historical data in predictive and risk analysis models. We'll cover Data Visualizer, Distributions Fitting, Special Functions, Time Series Fitting, and Correlations with @RISK.
  • Measuring, Interpreting, and Modeling Correlations Apr 22 2021 2:00 pm UTC 75 mins
    Rafael Hartke, CEO of Imagine Risks and Analytics
    This webinar will show the different ways we can visualize, interpret, model, and simulate historical data using @RISK and the DecisionTools Suite (DTS). We will use hands-on examples and provide an intuitive approach to modeling according to the business challenges at hand.
    We will use the tools provided by the DecisionTools Suite to:
    (i) Understand and interpret historical data
    (ii) Overview of available resources to model data in DTS: distribution fitting, time series, regression, neural networks, correlation
    (iii) Build a forecast model from data
    (iv) Simulate new data using Monte Carlo simulation
    (v) Analyze the simulation results and discuss how to best present them
  • Developing a Neural Network Model to Assign an Implied S&P Credit Rating Apr 20 2021 5:30 pm UTC 75 mins
    Ronald J. Statt - Risk Advisor in Enterprise Risk Management, Arizona Public Service Company
    Prior to entering into a contract with a company where one may be financially exposed, it is important to access the company’s financial health. Specifically, it is imperative to determine the company’s capacity to meet its financial obligations to pay off debt. Gratefully, the credit risk industry has developed hierarchical credit rating systems to inform the public of the risk of default, relative to other public companies, based on their financial metrics. The three largest credit rating agencies, Standard & Poor’s, Moody's and Fitch Group, rate a large portion of companies who publicly trade their stock. However, there are tens of thousands of private companies who are not rated by these agencies. Many of these companies are willing to provide their audited financial metrics (confidentially) to a potential creditor or customer so they can to determine their credit worthiness.
    This webinar demonstrates how to build a neural network model using NeuralTools from the DecisionTools Suite of @RISK, that will assign an implied S&P credit rating to a private company who provides the necessary financial metrics. The webinar will discuss where to acquire the metrics for thousands of companies needed to build the model, how to scrub the financial data, how to select the final set of metrics to be used in the model, how to determine the size of the test group, how to identify and correct for possible bias, and how to apply a validation process to select the final neural network model.
  • Optimum Financial and Project Investment Portfolio Apr 15 2021 2:00 pm UTC 75 mins
    Ing. Kazimir Kmet, Ph.D, MBA, TC Contact
    To analyze the risks of financial investments
    To build and optimize a portfolio of financial investments, investment projects
    To indicate possible developments in the creation and optimization of the financial investment portfolio
  • Intro to Risk Analysis with Monte Carlo Simulation Apr 14 2021 2:00 pm UTC 75 mins
    Rafael Hartke, CEO of Imagine Risks and Analytics
    This webinar presents an introduction to using Monte Carlo Simulation to perform Quantitative Risk Analysis. We'll present some practical models, including NPV and Cost Estimation models, to show how fast you can get started with probabilistic modeling in Excel with @RISK.
  • Modeling Ordinary Least Squares-Based Cost Estimating Relationship Errors Recorded: Mar 29 2021 62 mins
    Dr. Steve Van Drew, Consultant & Trainer
    If your cost model includes an Ordinary Least Squares (OLS)-based Cost Estimating Relationship (CER) and you are not explicitly modeling the associated error, for a linear regression you are implicitly assuming that there is no error. On average that’s a safe assumption; it’s individual occurrences however that can make this risky.

    After a brief review of OLS regression fundamentals (yeah, calculus), this webinar will show how @RISK can be used to model a regression equation’s error term for both linear and nonlinear (intrinsically linear) CERs. Along the way you will improve your skill working with the normal distribution and, if it’s not already part of it, add the lognormal distribution to your repertoire.
  • Evaluating Reliability of Buried Steel Structures Based on Diffusion Theory Recorded: Mar 17 2021 73 mins
    Naresh Samtani, Ph.D., P.E., D.GE, F.ASCE, Owner & President of NCS GeoResources
    All design specifications for steel-reinforced concrete structures provide guidelines for the thickness of minimum concrete cover over the reinforcing steel. The thickness of the concrete cover is a function of many considerations such as cracking, migration of deleterious substances that can cause corrosion of steel, or constructability concerns. The webinar will introduce a fully probabilistic approach for prediction of corrosion in buried concrete structure and then demonstrate how the @RISK program can be used for addressing this complex problem using the Load and Resistance Factor Design (LRFD) methodology.

    Presented by Naresh Samtani, Ph.D., P.E., D.GE, F.ASCE, Owner & President of NCS GeoResources
  • Insights about Decision Analysis With Case Study Models And Applications Recorded: Mar 10 2021 70 mins
    Manuel Carmona, Director Edy Training
    The DecisionTools Suite is an integrated set of programs for risk analysis and decision making under uncertainty. DecisionTools Suite software integrates seamlessly with Microsoft Excel, and includes:

    @RISK – Discover Monte Carlo simulation and scenario analysis for investment appraisal.
    PrecisionTree – Build a Decision Tree analysis for oil exploration.
    TopRank – Learn how to analyze variable sensitivity and explore in depth MsExcel spreadsheet models.
    StatTools – Overview the statistical analysis procedures available.
    Neural Tools- Implement a credit assessment Neural Network model in Excel.
    Evolver – Explore the power of Genetic Algorithms to solve complex optimization problems.

    The DecisionTools Suite enables endless applications, including; Cash Flow & Financial Analysis, Multi-stage Decision Modeling, Portfolio Optimization & Resource Allocation, Enterprise Risk Management and many others. During the webinar we will review some models and modeling techniques as well as many interesting product features for decision makers and modelers.
  • Exploring Electric Utility Energy Cost Behavior using Advanced Features Recorded: Mar 4 2021 34 mins
    Glen Justis, Experience On Demand
    The energy cost behavior of most electric utilities is complex and has significant non-linear features. With the advanced features of @RISK, you can improve energy risk measurement, communication, and mitigation. In this concise 30-minute webinar we will cover:
    • The drivers of electric utility energy cost behavior
    • Flexible energy portfolio modeling using @Risk
    • Advanced @RISK results analysis features
    • Practical applications
    • Q&A
  • Advanced Valuation: Start-ups Valuations Recorded: Feb 25 2021 62 mins
    Dr. Fernando Scarpati, Managing Partner, BVint
    Why You Should Attend What You Will Learn

    • The problems of traditional valuations and the DCF deterministic models
    • The problem of the CAPM (systematic and non-systematic risk)
    • Why advanced valuations?
    • Systematic and non-systematic risk using stochastic analysis
    • How to measure the risk-return trade-off using stochastic and Monte Carlo analysis
    • Traditional valuation vs Advanced Valuation for a start-up
  • Presupuestos Simples con el nuevo @RISK 8.1 en Español Recorded: Feb 19 2021 60 mins
    Gustavo Vinueza, Custom Development Manager, Palisade
    Este webinar analiza la construcción de un presupuesto de proyectos multinivel, que contempla muchas de las experiencias reales de usuarios del área de construcción y de manejo de proyectos, donde se tienen este tipo de presupuestos. Una vez armado, se añadirá un Registro de Riesgos simple, y se calculará su contingencia en distintos niveles. Además se harán análisis de sensibilidad buscando las variables consideradas los drivers del proyecto, y con las que tenemos que tener cuidado. Finalmente, se simulará la ejecución del presupuesto en diferentes niveles, para comparar la ejecución versus lo planeado.
  • Modelos de Agro y Ganadería 2: Margen Bruto Agrícola con @RISK 8.1 en Español Recorded: Feb 12 2021 68 mins
    Jose Garcia, Palisade
    En la administración de una empresa agropecuaria se hace necesario analizar la Información técnica y económica disponible para efectuar adecuadamente la toma de decisiones productivas.
    Una herramienta de gran utilidad la constituyen los márgenes brutos de las diferentes actividades, y dentro de los mismos, lo que se utilizan con mayor frecuencia son los márgenes brutos agrícolas.
    El margen bruto es la diferencia que existe entre los ingresos generados por una actividad (Ingreso Bruto) y los gastos en que se incurren para producir dicho ingreso (Gastos Directos).
    Debe señalarse que el margen bruto es una herramienta válida para el planeamiento de corto plazo (campaña agrícola). Su uso en decisiones agrícolas es debido a la facilidad con que se pueden estimar o calcular los ingresos y egresos generados y a la posibilidad concreta de cambiar de cultivos de una campaña a otra.
    El objetivo de este seminario es demostrar el uso de @RISK 8 para estimar el margen bruto en actividades agrícolas con rotaciones de cultivos.
    El modelamiento de la incertidumbre de las tareas de campo y de las variables externas nos ayudan a tener un enfoque más realista y poder ajustar las decisiones con parámetros más justificables.
  • Project Contingency Reserve Fair Share Determination Recorded: Feb 11 2021 71 mins
    Dr. Steve Van Drew
    You’ve built a comprehensive project cost estimate that accounts for significant risks and uncertainties. The project baseline uses most likely values provided by those responsible for each control account/WBS element. A contingency reserve has been determined from cost risk/uncertainty analysis simulation results in conjunction with either the PM’s tolerance for risk or corporate policy. These funds have been earmarked for use by the PM as needed. NICE WORK!

    But … in the back of your mind is a nagging concern that some of those involved may be trying to game the process. If only there was a way to judge when an area of risk or uncertainty was diving too deep into the pool of contingency funds. This webinar will demonstrate a technique for determining proportionate “fair share” amounts, a procedure called WBS allocation in some cost estimating circles, that can be used to help manage these funds. The technique incorporates @RISK simulation results including tornado graphs and statistic functions.
  • Trucos Productivos con el Nuevo @RISK 8.1 Recorded: Jan 29 2021 58 mins
    Gustavo Vinueza, Custom Development Manager, Palisade
    a. Este es un webinar para personas de todos los niveles y explorará trucos que harán más productiva su experiencia con el @RISK 8.1. Desde el uso simple de un RiskSimTable y un análisis de stress, cambiar colores a los nuevos tornados de sensibilidad, hasta ejecutar modelos con y sin matrices de correlación, comparar grupos de productos, y cosas avanzadas como generar probabilidades conjuntas. Esta es una presentación a la que todo usuario de @RISK debería asistir, para potenciar su experiencia en el uso del software.
  • Influencing Decisions With Effective Reporting Recorded: Jan 28 2021 68 mins
    Rishi Prabhakar, Senior Consultant, Palisade
    Analyses are only useful if you can convey the most relevant information effectively and efficiently to convince decision-makers. In this webinar, we will explore the reporting options in @RISK, focusing on the practical relevance of the results, or how they relate to specific business problems and decisions. The mechanics of how @RISK creates its reports will get us started, followed by a deeper dive into specific results such as the probability density of an output (and why you will use the relative frequency instead!), tornado charts, and other sensitivities, as well as decision comparisons.
Weekly webcasts for risk professionals
Palisade Company is the world’s leading provider of risk and decision analysis software solutions for science and industry.

Our array of software products and custom services enhance the management experience by combining the latest in cutting-edge technology with over 35 years of analytics experience. Palisade’s
unified software platform helps clients increase margins, improve performance, expand market share, and maximize operational efficiencies.

We have a very simple mission: to minimize risk while
maximizing potential.

Embed in website or blog

Successfully added emails: 0
Remove all
  • Title: Insights about Decision Analysis With Case Study Models And Applications
  • Live at: Mar 10 2021 4:00 pm
  • Presented by: Manuel Carmona, Director Edy Training
  • From:
Your email has been sent.
or close