Multi-Criteria Decision Analysis using Monte Carlo Simulation

Presented by

Timothy J. Havranek, MBA, PMP, Managing Principal at Optima Analytics, Inc.

About this talk

Multi-criteria decision analysis (MCDA) holds much promise for improving decision-making in all areas of business and government by helping stakeholders reach agreement on creative, effective, efficient, and appropriate solutions. For corporations, the process can help identify investment strategies that increase revenue and reduce costs while improving environmental, social, and governance metrics. For governmental organizations, MCDA can help identify high-value solutions while increasing transparency and stakeholder satisfaction. This presentation will demonstrate the successful application of MCDA and @RISK for evaluating redevelopment alternatives for closed industrial facility. The case study will include a discussion of methods for identifying project objectives and their associated evaluation criteria, a demonstration of conjoint surveys to determine criteria weights, the use of a probabilistic added value objective function, and probabilistic criteria normalization. The methods discussed in this presentation apply to any type of complex business decision involving high stakes, many alternatives, numerous uncertainties, and multiple stakeholders.

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