Sports Gambling – Ahead of Tomorrow the New Paradigm

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Presented by

Clay Graham, Chief Analytical Architect, Action Sports, LLC, Las Vegas

About this talk

In sports gambling, calculating the odds of a soccer match can be a challenge due to its unique wagering characteristics with an outcome of win, lose or draw. By using Palisade’s decision-modeling tools in Microsoft Excel to account for uncertainties that affect match outcomes, you can model results and maximize payout. We (at Action Sports) have developed an aggressive approach to model soccer including: Generate a discrete density function(s), derived from the mean and variance of goals scored. Optimize the data look-back period to enhance predictability and minimize noise and incorporate Monte Carlo simulation and logistic regression to calculate a probability of winning along with integrated Bayesian statistics to extrapolate an a posterior probability of winning.

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Palisade Company is the world’s leading provider of risk and decision analysis software solutions for science and industry. Our array of software products and custom services enhance the management experience by combining the latest in cutting-edge technology with over 35 years of analytics experience. Palisade’s unified software platform helps clients increase margins, improve performance, expand market share, and maximize operational efficiencies. We have a very simple mission: to minimize risk while maximizing potential.