Alumina is weighed down by its own weak market fundamentals, volatile ocean freight rates and limited upside to refining costs. The global market is on track to exhibit a sizeable alumina market surplus in 2021 H1. There are lacklustre bauxite price expectations in a buyer’s market. The Chinese-operated mines in Guinea will continue to ramp up production, and this will push other emerging miners to the brink that have unsold tonnages.