Q4 2023 U.S. Economic Outlook: How Will the Interest Rate Paradox Resolve?

Join Preston Caldwell, Chief U.S. Economist, for a deep dive into our U.S. economic outlook for 2024 and beyond.  A year ago, most economists thought the Fed’s rate hikes (the largest in 40 years) would trigger a recession. But the U.S. economy has defied those predictions – GDP growth has even accelerated a bit in 2023 compared to 2022. In this webinar, we’ll cover our forecasts for U.S. GDP, inflation, and interest rates for the next five years. We’ll explain the paradox of the U.S. economy’s resilience to high interest rates. We believe most of the depressive effects of high rates are still in the pipeline. As such, GDP growth will begin slowing in 2024. Fortunately, we expect aggressive rate cuts from the Fed, starting by mid-2024, to trigger a rebound in GDP in 2025 and following years. The way for rate cuts will be cleared by falling inflation, which we expect to return to the Fed’s 2% target in 2024.