Morningstar's Q3 2025 US Market Outlook: Has the Storm Passed, Or Are We in the Eye of a Hurricane?

There has been no shortage of volatility this year. US stocks started the year at a rarely seen premium over a composite of our valuations. The weather began to turn as overvalued and overextended AI stocks cracked after the DeepSeek scare. Yet, the brunt of the storm hit after Liberation Day tariffs were announced. Then, as tariffs were put on pause, almost just as quickly, the skies began to clear. The market has become increasingly optimistic that the still outstanding trade and tariff negotiations will be resolved in a way that does not damage the long-term outlook for the US economy. But has the storm really passed? Have risks to the market really subsided, or are they just on pause until trade negotiations begin to bump up against their deadlines? Join Morningstar’s Dave Sekera, CFA, Chief US Market Strategist, and Preston Caldwell, Chief US Economist for a review of market valuations in light of trade and tariff negotiations, the slowing rate of economic growth, and expectations for monetary policy. Learn how we think investors should be positioned for the potential return of stormy weather or if clear skies remain on the horizon. We will: - Break down our valuations and identify undervalued opportunities across categories, sectors, and stocks. - Highlight long-term secular growth themes as well as investable contrarian plays. - Provide our forecasts for real US GDP, inflation, and interest rates. By leveraging the 1,600 companies covered by Morningstar's equity analysts, we identify which areas are undervalued versus which are overvalued. From growth stocks to value stocks and from small-cap to large-cap, we will identify where we see value today. Following the presentation, we take as many questions from the audience as time allows. This webinar has been accepted by the CFP® Board for one continuing education (CE) credit for CFP® designations